Warming Power of CO2 and H2O: Correlations withTemperature Changes
Paulo Cesar Soares
Earth Sciences, Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Curitiba, Brazil Email:firstname.lastname@example.org
Received July 29, 2010; revised September 3, 2010; accepted September 30, 2010
The dramatic and threatening environmental changes announced for the next decades are the result of models whose main drive factor of climatic changes is the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Although taken as a premise, the hypothesis does not have verifiable consistence. The comparison of temperature changes and CO2 changes in the atmosphere is made for a large diversity of conditions, with the same data used to model climate changes. Correlation of historical series of data is the main approach. CO2 changes are closely related to temperature. Warmer seasons or triennial phases are followed by an atmosphere that is rich in CO2, reflecting the gas solving or exsolving from water, and not photosynthesis activity. Interannual correlations between the variables are good. A weak dominance of temperature changes precedence, relative to CO2 changes, indicate that the main effect is the CO2 increase in the atmosphere due to temperature rising.Decreasing temperature is not followed by CO2 decrease, which indicates a different route for the CO2 capture by the oceans, not by gas re-absorption. Monthly changes have no correspondence as would be expectedif the warming was an important absorption-radiation effect of the CO2 increase. The anthropogenic wasting of fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere shows no relation with the temperature changes even in an annual basis.The absence of immediate relation between CO2 and temperature is evidence that rising its mix ratio in the atmosphere will not imply more absorption and time residence of energy over the Earth surface. This is explained because band absorption is nearly all done with historic CO2 values. Unlike CO2, water vapor in the atmosphere is rising in tune with temperature changes, even in a monthly scale. The rising energy absorption of vapor is reducing the outcoming long wave radiation window and amplifying warming regionally and in a different way around the globe.
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The main conclusion one arrives at the analysis is that CO2 has not a causal relation with global warming and it is not powerful enough to cause the historical changes in temperature that were observed. The main argument is the absence of immediate correlation between CO2 changes preceding temperature either for global or local changes. The greenhouse effect of the CO2 is very small compared to the water vapor because the absorbing effect is already realized with its historical values. So, the reduction of the outcoming long wave radiation windowis not a consequence of current enrichment or even of a possible double ratio of CO2. The absence of correlation between temperature changes and the immense andvariable volume of CO2 waste by fuel burning is ex-plained by the weak power of additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to reduce the outcoming window of long wave radiation. This effect is well performed by atmosphere humidity due to known increase insolation and vapor content in atmosphere.
The role of vapor is reinforced when it is observed that the regions with a great difference between potential and actual specific humidity are the ones with high temperature increase, like continental areas in mid to high latitudes. The main implication is that temperature increase predictions based on CO2 driving models are not reliable.
If the warmer power of solar irradiation is the independent driver for decadal and multidecadal cycles, the expected changes in insolation and no increase in greenhouse power may imply the recurrence of multidecadal cool phase, recalling the years of the third quarter of past century, before a new warming wave. The last decade stable temperature seems to be the turning point.
Soares'in monipuolisten, ansiokkaina pitämieni, edellä mainittujen korrelaatioanalyysien mukaan ilmakehän hiilidioksidipitoisuuden nousu seuraa lämpenemistä eikä päinvastoin. Siinä ihmisperäisillä hiilidioksidipäästöillä ei vaikutusta ole havaittavissa, mistään hallitsevasta roolista puhumattakaan.
Samalla siitä voidaan tehdä omaakin käsitystäni tukeva johtopäätös, jonka mukaan ihmisperäiset hiilidioksidipäästöt eivät edes ilmakehän hiilidioksidipitoisuuden nykyistäkään nousua hallitse.
Jo yksin näiden Soares'in korrelaatioanalyysien asianmukaisuus riittää kumoamaan pelkkään uskoon perustuvan käsityksen, jonka mukaan viimeaikainen lämpeneminen johtuu ihmisen aiheuttamista hiilidioksidipäästöistä.